Friday, January 31, 2014

4 Stocks Under $10 Moving Higher

DELAFIELD, Wis. (Stockpickr) -- At Stockpickr, we track daily portfolios of stocks that are the biggest percentage gainers and the biggest percentage losers.

>>5 Stocks Set to Soar on Bullish Earnings

Stocks that are making large moves like these are favorites among short-term traders because they can jump into these names and try to capture some of that massive volatility. Stocks that are making big-percentage moves either up or down are usually in play because their sector is becoming attractive or they have a major fundamental catalyst such as a recent earnings release. Sometimes stocks making big moves have been hit with an analyst upgrade or an analyst downgrade.

Regardless of the reason behind it, when a stock makes a large-percentage move, it is often just the start of a new major trend -- a trend that can lead to huge profits. If you time your trade correctly, combining technical indicators with fundamental trends, discipline and sound money management, you will be well on your way to investment success.

>>5 Big Stocks to Trade for Big Gains

With that in mind, let's take a closer look at a several stocks under $10 that are making large moves to the upside today.

Sophiris Bio

Sophiris Bio (SPHS) is a clinical-stage biopharmaceutical company that develops and commercializes innovative products for the treatment of urological diseases. This stock closed up 5.1% to $4.51 in Tuesday's trading session.

Tuesday's Range: $4.25-$4.53

52-Week Range: $4.08-$17.68

Tuesday's Volume: 15,000

Three-Month Average Volume: 71,077

From a technical perspective, SPHS spiked higher here right above some near-term support at $4.08 with lighter-than-average volume. This stock has been trending sideways and consolidating for the last two months and change, with shares moving between $4.08 on the downside and $5.11 on the upside. Shares of SPHS are now starting to trend within range of triggering a big breakout trade above the upper-end of its recent sideways trading chart pattern. That breakout will hit if SPHS manages to take out some key near-term overhead resistance levels at $4.65 to $4.85 to some past overhead resistance at $5.11 with high volume.

Traders should now look for long-biased trades in SPHS as long as it's trending above Tuesday's low of $4.25 or above its 52-week low of $4.08 and then once it sustains a move or close above those breakout levels with volume that hits near or above 71,077 shares. If that breakout hits soon, then SPHS will set up to re-test or possibly take out its next major overhead resistance level at $5.91.

Zhone Technologies

Zhone Technologies (ZHNE) designs, develops and manufactures communications network equipment for telecommunications, wireless and cable operators worldwide. This stock closed up 5% to $3.95 in Tuesday's trading session.

Tuesday's Range: $3.70-$4.06

52-Week Range: $0.40-$4.58

Tuesday's Volume: 567,000

Three-Month Average Volume: 871,360

From a technical perspective, ZHNE trended higher here right above its 50-day moving average of $3.56 with lighter-than-average volume. This stock recently pulled back off its 52-week high of $4.58 to its recent low of $3.61. Shares of ZHNE have now started to find some buying interest each time it has traded near its 50-day over the last few weeks. This action is now starting to push shares of ZHNE within range of triggering a major breakout trade. That trade will hit if ZHNE manages to take out some key near-term overhead resistance at $4.10 and then once it clears more resistance at $4.48 to its 52-week high at $4.58 with high volume.

Traders should now look for long-biased trades in ZHNE as long as it's trending above its 50-day at $3.56 or above more support at $3.25 and then once it sustains a move or close above those breakout levels with volume that hits near or above 871,360 shares. If that breakout hits soon, then ZHNE will set up to enter new 52-week-high territory, which is bullish technical price action. Some possible upside targets off that breakout are $5.50 to $6.50

Aeropostale

Aeropostale (ARO) operates as a mall-based retailer of casual apparel and accessories for young women and men in the U.S. This stock closed up 3.9% to $9.51 in Tuesday's trading session.

Tuesday's Range: $9.07-$9.61

52-Week Range: $7.78-$17.10

Tuesday's Volume: 3.37 million

Three-Month Average Volume: 3.74 million

From a technical perspective, ARO trended higher here right off its 50-day moving average of $9.24 with solid upside volume. This move is quickly pushing shares of ARO within range of triggering a near-term breakout trade. That trade will hit if ARO manages to take out some key near-term overhead resistance levels at $9.68 to $9.92 with high volume.

Traders should now look for long-biased trades in ARO as long as it's trending above some near-term support at $9 or above $8.50 and then once it sustains a move or close above those breakout levels with volume that hits near or above 3.74 million shares. If that breakout hits soon, then ARO will set up to re-test or possibly take out its next major overhead resistance level at $10.47. Any high-volume move above $10.47 will then give ARO a chance to tag $11 to $11.50.

Dynavax Technologies

Dynavax Technologies (DVAX), a clinical-stage biopharmaceutical company, discovers and develops novel products to prevent and treat infectious and inflammatory diseases. This stock closed up 5.7% to $1.45 in Tuesday's trading session.

Tuesday's Range: $1.39-$1.47

52-Week Range: $0.98-$3.39

Tuesday's Volume: 12.96 million

Three-Month Average Volume: 2.76 million

From a technical perspective, DVAX trended higher here with monster upside volume. This move briefly pushed shares of DVAX into breakout territory, since the stock flirted with some key overhead resistance levels at $1.43 to $1.46. Shares of DVAX closed just below the latter at $1.45. Market players should now look for a continuation move higher in the short-term if DVAX can manage to take out Tuesday's high of $1.47 to some key past resistance at $1.50 with high volume.

Traders should now look for long-biased trades in DVAX as long as it's trending above some near-term support at $1.30 or above its 50-day at $1.23 and then once it sustains a move or close above $1.47 to $1.50 with volume that hits near or above 2.76 million shares. If we get that move soon, then DVAX will set up to re-test or possibly take out its next major overhead resistance levels at its 200-day of $1.73 to its gap down day high from June just above $1.80. Any high-volume move above $1.80 will then give DVAX a chance to re-fill some of its previous gap down zone that started at $2.60.

10 Best Canadian Stocks To Watch Right Now

To see more stocks that are making notable moves higher today, check out the Stocks Under $10 Moving Higher portfolio on Stockpickr.

-- Written by Roberto Pedone in Delafield, Wis.


RELATED LINKS:



>>5 Stocks Poised for Breakouts



>>5 Stocks Under $10 Set to Soar



>>5 Rocket Stocks for Another Week of New Highs

Follow Stockpickr on Twitter and become a fan on Facebook.

At the time of publication, author had no positions in stocks mentioned.

Roberto Pedone, based out of Delafield, Wis., is an independent trader who focuses on technical analysis for small- and large-cap stocks, options, futures, commodities and currencies. Roberto studied international business at the Milwaukee School of Engineering, and he spent a year overseas studying business in Lubeck, Germany. His work has appeared on financial outlets including

CNBC.com and Forbes.com. You can follow Pedone on Twitter at www.twitter.com/zerosum24 or @zerosum24.


Thursday, January 30, 2014

Single Women Shopping for LTC Insurance Better Start Now

Single women shopping for a long-term care policy should act now because while roughly half of the country still charges them the same rate as single men, some insurers started jacking up single women’s LTC coverage costs this spring by as much as 60%.

“This spring, leading insurers started introducing new policies that charge single women an average of between 40% and 60% more than a comparably aged single man,” said Jesse Slome, executive director of the American Association for Long Term Care Insurance, in a Friday statement. “It is a progressive state-by-state roll-out, however, and there are still 25 states where single women can lock in rates equal to those paid by men.”

According to an Association study, policies utilizing unisex pricing are still available in 25 states, including some of the largest states like California, Florida and New York. However, Slome says, “it is just a matter of time until their State Departments of Insurance get around to reviewing and approving the ‘sex distinct’ policies for sale to the public. At that time, the current policies are no longer offered for sale." 

As it stands now, the Association says, in states like California and New York, one large company is already charging single women more. Two other companies are waiting for their new products to be approved.

The following map depicts states where at least one major long-term care insurance company still offers unisex rates.

---

Check out Get Ready for Gender-Based Pricing on LTC Insurance on ThinkAdvisor.

Wednesday, January 29, 2014

Historical Reasons for Caution

Projections by most Wall Street firms are for a continuation of the good times through 2014—a goldilocks market, neither too hot nor too cold, observes Sy Harding, editor of Street Smart Report.

We remain on the intermediate-term buy signal for the stock market. We expect favorable seasonality and continuing Fed support will sustain the bull market into April or May, but at increasing risk.

However, we would remind investors that the cycles between bull and bear markets have not gone away. For 100 years, a bear market has come along on average of every four and a half years.

We expect a serious market correction, potentially of bear market proportions, in this year's unfavorable summer season.

After two straight summers without a problem, which has pundits and investors ignoring its long time history and writing-off seasonality again as not meaningful, that correction will likely shock the majority.

Problems likely to create that correction are many and are not unknown, but are currently being glossed over. In addition to annual seasonality, they include:

Market Valuation: The Shiller P/E ratio is at a five-year high of 26.11. That's 58% higher than its historical mean of 16.5.

Investor Sentiment: The biggest outlier gain last year for the S&P 500 (SPX) since 1997, and one of the least volatile in history, has investors extremely bullish and confident.

Consensus Inc. Bullish Sentiment Index: This index was recently at 75%. Consensus Inc. considers 75% as the overbought level of potential market reversals. The Investors Intelligence Sentiment Index is at 59.6% bulls, 14.1% bears. The spread, 45.5, is in the 96th percentile of its highest historical readings.

Four-Year Presidential Cycle: Since 1934, the average decline in the second year of the cycle has been 21%.

The Aging Bull: The average lifespan of the 11 bull markets, since 1950, was 53 months. The current bull market is 58 months old.

For the second straight year, there was no intermediate-term correction. The largest 'pullback' was 5.7% from the September peak to the October low.

The result has been the unusual situation that, for the first time in, at least, 15 years, the S&P 500 did not revisit its long-term 200-day moving average even once during the year.

In bull markets, the support at the 200-day moving average is usually retested at least once a year, and it's not unusual for the support to even give way temporarily. So that it was not even tested was unusual. It adds to the risk as 2014 proceeds.

It would be well to realize that just a normal pullback to retest the support at the 200-day moving average would take the S&P 500 down to its level of October 16, wiping out the entire gain from mid-October.

Meanwhile, just the average 21% decline in the second year of the four-year Presidential Cycle would take the S&P back to its level of January 2, 2013, wiping out last year's entire big gain.

Subscribe to Street Smart Report here…

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Monday, January 27, 2014

4 Tech Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume

DELAFIELD, Wis. (Stockpickr) -- Professional traders running mutual funds and hedge funds don't just look at a stock's price moves; they also track big changes in volume activity. Often when above-average volume moves into an equity, it precedes a large spike in volatility.

>>5 Stocks Poised for Breakouts

Major moves in volume can signal unusual activity, such as insider buying or selling -- or buying or selling by "superinvestors."

Unusual volume can also be a major signal that hedge funds and momentum traders are piling into a stock ahead of a catalyst. These types of traders like to get in well before a large spike, so it's always a smart move to monitor unusual volume. That said, remember to combine trend and price action with unusual volume. Put them all together to help you decipher the next big trend for any stock.

>>5 Rocket Stocks Ready for Blastoff

With that in mind, let's take a look at several stocks rising on unusual volume today.

Phoenix New Media

Phoenix New Media (FENG) is a new media company providing premium content on an integrated platform across Internet, mobile and TV channels in China. This stock closed up 2.9% at $12.62 in Monday's trading session.

Monday's Volume: 1.73 million

Three-Month Average Volume: 643,232

Volume % Change: 175%

>>5 Hated Earnings Stocks You Should Love

From a technical perspective, FENG trended higher here heavy upside volume. This stock has been uptrending strong for the last five months, with shares soaring higher from its low of $3.79 to its intraday high of $13. During that move, shares of FENG have been consistently making higher lows and higher highs, which is bullish technical price action. This move on Monday pushed shares into breakout and new 52-week-high territory, since the stock took out some resistance at $12.57.

Traders should now look for long-biased trades in FENG as long as it's trending above some near-term support levels at $12 or at $11 and then once it sustains a move or close above Monday's high of $13 with volume that's near or above 634,232 shares. If we get that move soon, then FENG will set up to enter new 52-week high territory, which is bullish technical price action. Some possible upside targets off that move are $14 to $16.

Comtech Telecommunications

Comtech Telecommunications (CMTL) designs, develops, produces and markets products, systems and services for advanced communications solutions. This stock closed up 4.2% at $26.86 in Monday's trading session.

Monday's Volume: 273,000

Three-Month Average Volume: 58,572

Volume % Change: 335%

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From a technical perspective, CMTL ripped higher here right above both its 50-day at $25.38 and its 200-day at $25.51 with strong upside volume. This move is quickly pushing shares of CMTL within range of triggering a big breakout trade. That trade will hit if CMTL manages to take out Monday's high of $27 and then once it clears more resistance at $27.67 to its 52-week high at $27.89 with high volume.

Traders should now look for long-biased trades in CMTL as long as it's trending above its 50-day at $25.38, and then once it sustains a move or close above those breakout levels with volume that's near or above 58,572 shares. If that breakout hits soon, then CMTL will set up to enter new 52-week-high territory above $27.89, which is bullish technical price action. Some possible upside targets off that breakout are its next major overhead resistance levels at $30 to $33.

Sparton

Sparton (SPA) is a provider of complex and sophisticated electromechanical devices with capabilities that include concept development, industrial design, design and manufacturing engineering, production, distribution and field service. This stock closed up 4.9% at $26.54 in Monday's trading session.

Monday's Volume: 154,000

Three-Month Average Volume: 53,426

Volume % Change: 155%

>>5 Cash-Hoarders to Triple Your Gains

From a technical perspective, SPA trended sharply higher here right above some near-term support at $25 with above-average volume. This move briefly pushed SPA into breakout and new 52-week-high territory, after the stock flirted with some near-term overhead resistance at $26.44. Shares of SPA closed just below that resistance level at $26.54 with volume that was well above its three-month average action of 53,426 shares.

Traders should now look for long-biased trades in SPA as long as it's trending above support at $25 and then once it sustains a move or close above Monday's intraday high of $26.65 with volume that's near or above 53,426 shares. If we get that move soon, then SPA will set up to enter new 52-week-high territory, which is bullish technical price action. Some possible upside targets off that move are $30 to $33.

InvenSense

InvenSense (INVN) designs, develops, markets and sells micro-electro-mechanical system gyroscopes for motion tracking devices in consumer electronics. This stock closed up 5.8% at $19.71 in Monday's trading session.

Monday's Volume: 4.74 million

Three-Month Average Volume: 2.81 million

Volume % Change: 70%

Shares of INVN jumped higher on Monday after Craig-Hallum said the company has three new design wins that include Google's Nexus 5, Amazon Kindle Fire HD and Samsung Galaxy Gear.

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From a technical perspective, INVN ripped higher here right above its 50-day moving average at $17.51 with heavy upside volume. This move pushed shares of INVN into breakout and new 52-week-high territory, after the stock took out some near-term overhead resistance at $19.36. This stock has been uptrending strong for the last five months, with shares soaring higher from its low of $9.10 to its intraday high of $19.90. During that move, shares of INVN have been consistently making higher lows and higher highs, which is bullish technical price action.

Traders should now look for long-biased trades in INVN as long as it's trending above Monday's low of $18.44 or above its 50-day at $17.51 and then once it sustains a move or close above its new 52-week high at $19.90 with volume that hits near or above 2.81 million shares. If we get that move soon, then INVN will set up to enter new 52-week-high territory, which is bullish technical price action. Some possible upside targets off that move are its all-time high at $22.35 to $25.

To see more stocks rising on unusual volume, check out the Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume portfolio on Stockpickr.

-- Written by Roberto Pedone in Delafield, Wis.


RELATED LINKS:



>>4 Stocks Under $10 Making Big Moves



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>>3 Huge Tech Stocks on Traders' Radars

Follow Stockpickr on Twitter and become a fan on Facebook.

At the time of publication, author had no positions in stocks mentioned.

Roberto Pedone, based out of Delafield, Wis., is an independent trader who focuses on technical analysis for small- and large-cap stocks, options, futures, commodities and currencies. Roberto studied international business at the Milwaukee School of Engineering, and he spent a year overseas studying business in Lubeck, Germany. His work has appeared on financial outlets including

CNBC.com and Forbes.com. You can follow Pedone on Twitter at www.twitter.com/zerosum24 or @zerosum24.


Sunday, January 26, 2014

Take-Two Interactive Software Inc. (TTWO): Grand Theft Auto V A Game And Stock Price Changer

Take-Two Interactive Software Inc. (TTWO) is probably going to steal the show on Wall Street today. After Wednesday's close, the Multimedia & Graphics Software maker announced "Grand Theft Auto V" generated $800 million in global sales in the first 24 hours. Humpday – yeah!

Strauss Zelnick, Chairman and CEO of Take-Two said, "Beginning at midnight on Monday, consumers around the world gathered in anticipation to be among the first to experience the evolution of this remarkable series. In North America alone, more than 8,300 stores opened their doors at midnight to welcome fans whose loyalty and enthusiasm were rewarded with what The New York Times called 'the most immersive spectacle in interactive entertainment'. We are incredibly proud of Rockstar Games' creative achievement and could not be more pleased with the success of this launch."

Investors are likely next in line to be "more pleased with the success of this launch." Shares are up more than $1 following the welcome news.

Let's rewind the clock to April 29, 2008 when "Grand Theft Auto IV" was released to see what the future might hold for TTWO share price.

If 2008 is any indication, the stock might not do so well following the initial response. Back when Kung-Fu Panda and Wall-E were movies to see, the game sold more than 3.6 million copies on its first day of availability and six million copies in the first week of availability generating $500 million in sales.

On the day of 2008's release, Take-Two's shares closed at $ 26.63. On June 5, 2008, the stock peaked for the year, closing at $27.65.  TTWO shareholders certainly hope history doesn't repeat.

Fast-forward to today, using 2008 as a guide, first week sales for "Grand Theft Auto V" should tack on another 67% to day one's total. And the calculator says, $1.37 billion.

Wall Street forecast sales of $793.85 million for the current quarter. iStock has this funny feeling that some revisions are coming, probably as early as today. On the current consensus of $793.85M, analysts expect EPS of $1.38, which works out to a net-margin of 15.12%. If we carry the projected profit percent across our sales estimate, EPS could come in closer to $2.38, just from "Grand Theft Auto V."

If we are close, Wall Street could add $1 or more to the current fiscal 2014's full-year estimate of $2.51 or $3.51 per share. At a P/E of 10, well, you can do the math.

Overall: iStock believes "Grand Theft Auto V" could be a game-changer for Take-Two Interactive Software Inc. (TTWO). Early numbers will likely lead to a rash of earnings revisions and upgrades, which usually push stock prices higher.

Saturday, January 25, 2014

BMY Pummeled After Earnings, But Bristol-Myers Squibb Stock Still a Buy

LinkedIn Logo RSS Logo James Brumley Popular Posts: 5 Tech Stocks With Electric Dividend Yields5 Biotech Stocks With Big Catalysts on the HorizonMore U.S. Companies Realize China Isn’t Worth the Trouble Recent Posts: BMY Pummeled After Earnings, But Bristol-Myers Squibb Stock Still a Buy EBAY Stock: Sorry, Carl Icahn, But a PayPal Spinoff Only Helps You More U.S. Companies Realize China Isn’t Worth the Trouble View All Posts

Bristol-Myers Squibb (BMY) did better in the fourth quarter than most analysts and investors were expecting, beating per-share earnings exceptions by 18% and topping revenue estimates by 3.2%, thanks to strong sales of Baraclude, Orencia, Yervoy and Sprycel.

bristol 185 BMY Pummeled After Earnings, But Bristol Myers Squibb Stock Still a Buy

All told, BMY reported a profit of 51 cents per share, vs. estimates of 43 cents and a year-ago figure of 47 cents. Sales-wise, Bristol-Myers Squibb generated $4.44 billion worth of revenue, which compares favorably to the anticipated Q4 2013 top line of $4.19 million and Q4 2012′s revenue of $4.19 billion.

The bulk of the sales growth came from overseas markets, while the improvement in profits was driven by a combination of higher sales and lower R&D costs.

With all of that being said, current or prospective Bristol-Myers Squibb stock owners might want to embrace the fact that — for better or worse — the same BMY from last quarter isn’t going to be the same BMY a year from now. A significant reconfiguring of Squibb’s drug portfolio in addition to a change of plans for some of the most promising therapies in its pipeline require a more thorough look, just so shareholders know what to expect in 2014.

A New (and Likely Improved) Bristol-Myers Squibb

Last quarter, Bristol-Myers Squibb saw sales of hepatitis drug Baraclude grow 14%, reaching $412 million. Revenue from cancer drug Yervoy was up 23%, to $260 million. Immunotherapy (rheumatoid arthritis) Orencia sales expanded 22%, to $397 million. Sales of HIV treatment Sustiva grew 11% to $427 million. And, cancer drug Sprycel improved sales to the tune of 30%, reaching revenue of $365 million.

BMY stock owners and observers should know, however, there were some red flags waving in last quarter’s report. Sales of antipsychotic drug Abilify slumped 22%, to only $635 million, and though sales of blood-thinning Plavix were technically up 65% on a year-over-year basis in the fourth quarter, Plavix only generated $81 million in revenue during Q4. In 2012, Plavix sales were approaching sales of nearly $2 billion per quarter, before its patent expired.

The hot spots last quarter in its portfolio of existing drugs largely reflect the company’s new direction. Going forward, Bristol-Myers Squibb stock holders can expect an even deeper focus on cancer treatments like Yervoy and Sprycel, as well as further development of immunotherapy drugs like Orencia, and antivirals.

Conversely, though BMY has no apparent plans to shed its slumping Plavix or Abilify franchises, the company isn’t devoting a great deal of time or resources to develop replacements…. perhaps because the heir-apparent to Plavix, Eliquis, has been a very slow starter. In fact, Bristol-Myers Squibb is looking to shed many of its non-cancer and non-immunotherapy projects to better focus on those two areas. Case in point: Despite decent revenue growth from its diabetes portfolio in Q4, the company will be selling all four of its diabetes drugs to AstraZeneca (AZN) later in the year.

And despite growth in Baraclude’s sales, BMY also announced in November that it would be axing its hepatitis C programs.

What Now for Bristol-Myers Squibb Stock Owners?

With a new-found focus on the areas that Bristol-Myers Squibb is most interested in, “how” becomes the big question. Broadly speaking, it looks like the company is willing to let go of its partnership bent and start to do more on its own.

Selling its diabetes business to now-former-partner AstraZeneca is some evidence to that end, but it’s not the only sign that BMY is migrating to a policy of self-sufficiency. The company has also given up on partnering with Gilead (GILD) on the hepatitis C front.

Gilead is the maker of Sovaldi, the first-ever pill-form hepatitis C treatment. Alone the pill works quite well, but when combined with Bristol-Myers Squibb’s daclatasvir hepatitis therapy, the drug duo is almost miraculous. Gilead wants none of such a partnership, however, opting to develop its own drugs to combine with Sovaldi to improve its efficacy. As it turns out, however, BMY stock owners may have the last laugh, though, and Gilead may regret its decision go it alone. Daclatasvir is up for a likely approval in Europe, where doctors are apt to prescribe it in off-label combinations with other hepatitis therapies. Success there in conjunction with other hepatitis drugs could serve as a launching point for approval in the United States.

Bristol-Myers Squibb stock holders will also want to keep tabs on Nivolumab. The story of this non-small-cell lung cancer therapy took an apparent wrong turn earlier in the week when it was announced that a new Phase 3 study of the drug was being initiated, implying that the previous study of Nivolumab (in combination with Yervoy) isn’t going as well as hoped. It’s important to note that the company has said nothing of any issues with the Yervoy/ Nivolumab trial, however, and it’s entirely possible BMY has simply chosen to pursue two parallel studies, just to see which option produces the highest efficacy.

As of this writing, James Brumley did not hold a position in any of the aforementioned securities.

Friday, January 24, 2014

5 Big Trades to Survive the S&P's Cold Spell

BALTIMORE (Stockpickr) -- It's cold on Wall Street this month, both literally and figuratively. Lows are reaching single digits in the Northeast as I write today, but the S&P 500 is positively sub-zero three full weeks into 2014.

>>5 Shareholder Yield Winners to Beat the S&P 500

At last count, the big index is down around 0.24%. Even though equities aren't quite hemorrhaging points this winter, they are giving investors the cold shoulder. And that's precisely why it makes sense to focus on strength as we head into the final trading week of January.

To do that, we're turning to the charts to take a closer look at the technical trading setups in five of Wall Street's biggest names.

If you're new to technical analysis, here's the executive summary.

Technicals are a study of the market itself. Since the market is ultimately the only mechanism that determines a stock's price, technical analysis is a valuable tool even in the roughest of trading conditions. Technical charts are used every day by proprietary trading floors, Wall Street's biggest financial firms, and individual investors to get an edge on the market. And research shows that skilled technical traders can bank gains as much as 90% of the time.

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Every week, I take an in-depth look at big names that are telling important technical stories. Here's this week's look at five high-volume stocks to trade this week.

SPDR S&P 500 ETF


It makes sense to start off with a look at the broad market. To do that, we'll use the SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY), the best investible proxy for everyone's favorite stock index. Despite all of the anxiety that's been pumped into stocks over the course of the last month, SPY doesn't look half bad as we head deeper into 2014.

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That's because SPY is still staying within the uptrending channel that's been in force since before the start of 2013. So, sure, SPY may be correcting this month, but it's a correction within the context of a longer-term rally. That's shouldn't scare investors away from buying stocks -- it should encourage them!

We're still very much in a "buy the dips" kind of market. On each successive test of trendline support since all the way back in late 2012, the S&P has managed to catch a bid and bounce higher. Odds look pretty good that history will repeat itself on the next attempt; but all trendlines do eventually break, which is why it's critical to wait for shares to actually bounce off of support before diving in.

It's worth noting that momentum, measured by 14-day RSI, is still very much in "bull" mode right now. The S&P could still stand to fall quite a bit without breaking the uptrend in stocks – and if shares come down to test trendline support sometime soon (either with a meaningful move lower or a sideways time correction), I'd certainly be a buyer.

Amazon.com


It's been a pretty solid year for shareholders of Amazon.com (AMZN). In the last 12 months, the online retail behemoth has seen its shares rally more than 48.7%. Don't worry if you missed the move, though -- the recent price action in Amazon points to move highs on the way. Here's how to trade it:

>>4 Tech Stocks in Breakout Territory

Amazon.com is currently forming an ascending triangle pattern, a bullish setup that's formed by a horizontal resistance level above shares at $405 and uptrending support to the downside. Basically, as AMZN bounces in between those two technical price levels, it's getting squeezed closer and closer to a breakout above $405. When that happens, we've got our buy signal -- and shares are testing that breakout in this morning's session...

Whenever you're looking at any technical price pattern, it's critical to think in terms of buyers and sellers. Triangles and other price pattern names are a good quick way to explain what's going on in this stock, but they're not the reason it's tradable. Instead, it all comes down to supply and demand for shares.

That resistance line at $405 is a price where there's an excess of supply of shares; in other words, it's a place where sellers have been more eager to take recent gains and sell their shares than buyers have been to buy. That's what makes the move above it so significant -- a breakout indicates that buyers are finally strong enough to absorb all of the excess supply above that price level. If shares can hold $405 in today's session, it's time to click "buy."

Apple


Apple (AAPL) is another name that looks stellar from a technical standpoint right now. Shares of the technology giant have been in an uptrend since July, but it's the setup forming within the uptrend that makes AAPL look especially timely in January. It's all thanks to an inverse head and shoulders that's taking shape in the short-term.

>>2 Oversold Stocks Ready to Bounce Higher

The inverse head and shoulders pattern in a bullish price setup that indicates exhaustion among sellers. After the 40% that shares of Apple have climbed since July, it's not too hard to see why sellers might be getting tired. The pattern is formed by two swing lows that bottom out around the same level (the shoulders), separated by a deeper low (the head). The buy signal comes on a move through the neckline, which is right at $570.

What's perhaps most important in AAPL right now is relative strength. With the S&P sitting in corrective mode, relative strength is the single most important technical indicator you can put in your toolbox; it's what will keep your portfolio from buckling under the weight of a correction.

With Apple stomping the S&P for more than six months now, relative strength couldn't look much better -- and that adds a lot of confidence for a buy on a move above $570. Risk-averse traders may want to consider a protective stop at the 50-day moving average.

BHP Billiton


Not all of this week's trades are bullish, but often, knowing which names to sidestep (or which to actively short) is what keeps you alive when market performance turns anemic. That brings us to BHP Billiton (BHP), a mega-cap resource stock that's forming the bearish opposite to the one in Apple.

>>5 Stocks Set to Soar on Bullish Earnings

Worse, BHP's head and shoulders top is forming in the long-term; what comes with long-term downside implications if it triggers.

BHP's neckline is right at $62.50 right now, but it's downsloping. For that reason, it'll continue to drop the longer BHP takes to approach it. The biggest problem for anyone who owns BHP right now is that any sell signal is going to be late -- but it'll also be worth heeding considering this stock's previous reactions to this pattern. On multiple timeframes, head and shoulders setups have had little trouble meeting their price targets in BHP this past year.

For longs waiting to buy, I'd recommend avoiding shares unless BHP can break above its right shoulder at $68. Otherwise, if the head and shoulders does trigger, $56 looks like the closest support level for shares to catch a bid again.

Exxon Mobil


Last up is Exxon Mobil (XOM). This oil and gas supermajor needs to introduction, but its chart does. Exxon is bookending our list of trades opposite SPY because it's showing traders what happens when a good uptrend setup goes bad.

Exxon broke a downtrend at the end of 2013, initiating a well-defined rally that started in October. But the uptrend in Exxon was steep enough that it wasn't likely to last for long, and the breakdown below trendline support last week proves it. That move, incidentally, is precisely why it's crucial to wait for a bounce off of support before buying a stock that's pulling back. Exxon couldn't catch a bid at support anymore, and shares fell through.

From here, more downside looks likely. While $95 looks like a reasonable place for shares to find support in the near-term, not losing much money isn't exactly a viable strategy for 2014. Instead, focus on the names with better relative strength in this market.

To see this week's trades in action, check out this week's Must-See Charts portfolio on Stockpickr.

-- Written by Jonas Elmerraji in Baltimore.


RELATED LINKS:



>>5 Health Care Stocks to Trade for Gains



>>5 Rocket Stocks to Buy for a Short Trading Week



>>5 Stocks Ready to Break Out

Follow Stockpickr on Twitter and become a fan on Facebook.

At the time of publication, author was long AAPL.

Jonas Elmerraji, CMT, is a senior market analyst at Agora Financial in Baltimore and a contributor to

TheStreet. Before that, he managed a portfolio of stocks for an investment advisory returned 15% in 2008. He has been featured in Forbes , Investor's Business Daily, and on CNBC.com. Jonas holds a degree in financial economics from UMBC and the Chartered Market Technician designation.

Follow Jonas on Twitter @JonasElmerraji


Wednesday, January 22, 2014

U.S. Stock Values Have Analysts Worried

Corporate-earnings reports are trickling in, and they aren't great. J.P. Morgan Chase & Co. was a little better than anticipated; General Electric Co.(GE) was as expected; Best Buy Co.(BBY) was terrible.

Money managers are wondering whether soft earnings will justify more stock gains, given the Dow Jones Industrial Average's 26.5% rise last year. That helps explain why the Dow is down 118 points to start the year.

Among their biggest questions: Just how expensive are stocks, anyway? Are they overpriced compared with likely earnings gains? What do stocks typically do when they get this pricey? What should investors do?

The answer: By a variety of measures the market is frothy. Some measures, but not all, are close to 2007 and 2008 extremes. They are far from most extremes of 2000, however. So while many investors are turning cautious, few are pulling back wholesale.

"This market isn't bubble-level by any stretch of the imagination," says Scott Clemons, chief investment strategist at Brown Brothers Harriman Wealth Management, which oversees $23 billion.

His worry is that with the earnings outlook tepid, the risk of a pullback is rising. Many of his clients are risk-averse, so his firm has trimmed stockholdings just in case. That kind of defensive thinking is affecting stock prices.

Investors face two problems: The first is earnings. Of the 52 companies in the S&P 500 index that have reported fourth-quarter results, 52% beat expectations according to S&P Capital IQ, below the average 67% of the past four quarters. Moreover, revenue gains have been weak. Earnings season has just begun and money managers will be watching coming reports closely, including from International Business Machines Corp.(IBM), Verizon Communications Inc.(VZ) and McDonald's Corp. this week.

A second, deeper question is whether future earnings will push stocks much higher, even if they meet analysts' expectations.

Goldman Sachs(GS) investment strategist David Kostin startled investors a week ago by warning that prices are high compared to analysts' forecasts. The chances are two out of three that the S&P will fall at least 10% sometime this year, before finishing with an overall yearly gain of around 3%, he said.

Mr. Kostin measured stocks many ways; against sales, book value, cash flow, inflation, interest rates and other items. He looked in particular at prices compared with analysts' earnings forecasts for the next 12 months.

The S&P 500 trades at 16 times forecast earnings, he calculates, well above 13, the average going back to the 1970s. Since 1976, it has hardly ever surpassed 17 times forecast earnings. The main exception came during the stock bubble of the late 1990s and early 2000s.

So he figures it will be hard for price/earnings ratios to rise much. That would limit stock gains to the rate of earnings gains, which have been slowing.

Ned Davis Research in Venice, Fla., has reached similar conclusions. Ned Davis, the firm's founder, published two reports titled "Overweighted, Over-Believed and Overvalued." He looked at an array of measures including the percentage of U.S. financial assets held in stocks, margin-debt levels and how much money managers and mutual funds have allocated to stocks.

His conclusion: Investors are overexposed to stocks, but they haven't gone to bubblelike extremes.

Vincent Deluard, a Ned Davis investment strategist, agrees that the P/E based on forecast earnings is above average. Because forecasts are unreliable, he also tracks earnings for the past 12 months, adjusted for inflation, interest rates and economic growth. All these measures yield a similar conclusion.

"We have a market that is getting a little frothy," Mr. Deluard says. His team expects a pullback of 10% to 20% in the next six months, but perhaps not right away. Then they expect stocks to rise, maybe for years.

"This is not 2008. This is not 2000. This is more like 1998, where you have some of the signs that you see at tops, but not at extremes," he says.

Mr. Clemons's firm, Brown Brothers Harriman, has gradually boosted cash in a typical portfolio to a range of 15% to 20%, far above the normal 3% to 5%. Since stocks have kept rising, clients have endured subpar returns.

A short-term trader would hate that strategy, but Mr. Clemons says his conservative clients welcome it. They miss gains at the top but avoid losses during declines.

"It reflects our client base and the need for the preservation of wealth," he says.

This view is spreading. When Northern Trust(NTRS) surveyed 100 outside investment managers at the end of last year, 34% called themselves more risk averse, up from 20% in the third quarter. Only 36% said U.S. stocks are undervalued.

But some people disagree. James Paulsen, chief investment strategist at Wells Capital Management, which oversees $340 billion, notes that P/E ratios in the past have moved even higher than they are today before running into real trouble.

As long as inflation stays moderate and the Federal Reserve doesn't raise interest rates sharply, he says, the P/E ratio on earnings for the past 12 months can hit the 20s from its current level of around 16 or 17.

Yet Mr. Paulsen, too, is worried that 2014 could be a volatile year and that stocks could finish with little or no gain. His concern isn't valuation; It is that the economy could warm up. Inflation fears could spread, he says, even if actual inflation stays modest. The worries could limit stock gains.

These things are so hard to predict that he and many other money managers are urging clients not to change their holdings or try to time the market.

Still, his concerns show that even people who aren't worried about valuations are still worrying. Little wonder that stocks are having trouble moving higher.

Monday, January 20, 2014

Top Oil Stocks For 2014

Despite all the political turmoil over health care and persistent Republican efforts to defund the Affordable Care Act, health care has been a top-performing sector in the mutual fund universe.

With an average return of 39.6 percent over the trailing one-year period, the health sector has been the third best performer, while topping the chart over the trailing three-year period with a total return just shy of 23 percent. Health care has also been one of the best performing US sectors for most of this year.

Nonetheless, many investors find the health care sector intimidating, having a tough time balancing more established players with cutting-edge biotechnology companies that have the potential promise of high profits but are extremely high risk. And while the health care sector as a whole is generally less volatile than the broader market, you can still find some shockingly high betas in a few niches of the sector.

Top Oil Stocks For 2014: Talisman Energy Inc.(TLM)

Talisman Energy Inc., an upstream oil and gas company, engages in the exploration, development, production, transportation, and marketing of crude oil, natural gas, and natural gas liquids. It primarily operates in North America, the North Sea, and southeast Asia. The company was founded in 1925 and is headquartered in Calgary, Canada.

Advisors' Opinion:
  • [By Sue Chang , Saumya Vaishampayan]

    $TLM: Talisman Energy Inc. (TLM) �shares fell 2.5%. Activist investor Carl Icahn disclosed a 6% stake in the oil and gas producer on Monday. Icahn said in a tweet he might discuss strategic alternatives and board seats with the company.

  • [By Arjun Sreekumar]

    In Pennsylvania, for instance, several hundred wells have been drilled but not completed because the takeaway capacity to get their production to market simply isn't there. Several operators have been forced to drastically reduce their rig counts in the region. For instance, both EXCO Resources (NYSE: XCO  ) and Talisman Energy (NYSE: TLM  ) have just one rig each remaining in the Marcellus.

Top Oil Stocks For 2014: Contango Oil & Gas Co (MCF)

Contango Oil & Gas Company (Contango) is an independent natural gas and oil company. The Company�� core business is to explore, develop, produce and acquire natural gas and oil properties onshore and offshore in the Gulf of Mexico in water-depths of less than 300 feet. Contango Operators, Inc. (COI), its wholly owned subsidiary, acts as operator on its properties.

Offshore Gulf of Mexico Activities

Contango, through its wholly-owned subsidiary, COI and its partially owned affiliate, Republic Exploration LLC (REX), conducts exploration activities in the Gulf of Mexico. COI drills, and operates its wells in the Gulf of Mexico, as well as attends lease sales and acquires leasehold acreage. As of August 24, 2012, the Company's offshore production was approximately 83.5 million cubic feet equivalent per day, net to Contango, which consists of seven federal and five state of Louisiana wells in the shallow waters of the Gulf of Mexico. These 12 operated wells produce through the four platforms: Eugene Island 24 Platform, Eugene Island 11 Platform, Ship Shoal 263 Platform, Vermilion 170 Platform and Other Activities.

This third-party owned and operated production platform at Eugene Island 24 was designed with a capacity of 100 million cubic feet per day and 3,000 barrels of oil per day. This platform services production from the Company�� Dutch #1, #2 and #3 federal wells. From this platform, the gas flows through an American Midstream pipeline into a third-party owned and operated on-shore processing facility at Burns Point, Louisiana, and the condensate flows through an ExxonMobil pipeline to on-shore markets and multiple refineries. As of August 24, 2012, it was producing approximately 22.5 million cubic feet equivalent per day, net to Contango, from this platform. The Company finished laying six inches auxiliary flowlines from the Dutch #1, #2, and #3 wells to its Eugene Island 11 Platform and is in the process of redirecting production from the Eugene Island 24! Platform to the Eugene Island 11 Platform.

The Company�� Company-owned and operated platform at Eugene Island 11 was designed with a capacity of 500 million cubic feet equivalent per day and 6,000 barrels of oil per day. These platforms service production from the Company�� five Mary Rose wells, which are all located in state of Louisiana waters, as well as its Dutch #4 and Dutch #5 wells, which are both located in federal waters. From these platforms, it can flow its gas to an American Midstream pipeline through its eight inches pipeline and from there to a third-party owned and operated on-shore processing facility at Burns Point, Louisiana. It can flow its condensate through an ExxonMobil pipeline to on-shore markets and multiple refineries.

The Company�� gas and condensate can flow to its Eugene Island 63 auxiliary platform through its 20 inches pipeline, which has been designed with a capacity of 330 million cubic feet equivalent per day and 6,000 barrels of oil per day, and from there to third-party owned and operated on-shore processing facilities near Patterson, Louisiana, through an ANR pipeline. As of August 24, 2012, it was producing approximately 44.6 million cubic feet equivalent per day, net to Contango, from this platform.

The Company�� owned and operated platform at Ship Shoal 263 was designed with a capacity of 40 million cubic feet equivalent per day and 5,000 barrels of oil per day. This platform services natural gas and condensate production from our Nautilus well, which flows through the Transcontinental Gas Pipeline to onshore processing plants. As of August 24, 2012, it was producing approximately 3.0 million cubic feet equivalent per day, net to Contango, from this platform. As of June 30, 2012, the Company owed a 100% working interest and 80% net revenue interest in this well and platform.

The Company�� owned and operated platform at Vermilion 170 was designed with a capacity of 60 million cubic feet equivalent per ! day and 2! ,000 barrels of oil per day. This platform services natural gas and condensate production from its Swimmy well, which flows through the Sea Robin Pipeline to onshore processing plants. As of August 24, 2012, it was producing approximately 13.4 million cubic feet equivalent per day, net to Contango, from this platform.

On July 10, 2012, the Company spud its South Timbalier 75 prospect (Fang) with the Spartan 303 rig. It has a 100% working interest in this wildcat exploration prospect. On July 3, 2012, the Company spud its Ship Shoal 134 prospect (Eagle) with the Hercules 205 rig. The Company purchased the deep mineral rights on Ship Shoal 134 from an independent third-party. It has a 100% working interest in this wildcat exploration prospect. On December 21, 2011, the Company purchased an additional 3.66% working interest (2.67% net revenue interest) in Mary Rose #5 (previously Eloise North). The Company has a 47.05% working interest (38.1% net revenue interest) in Dutch #5.

Offshore Properties

During the fiscal year ended June 30, 2012 (fiscal 2012), State Lease 19396 expired and was returned to the state of Louisiana. As of August 24, 2012, the interests owned by Contango through its affiliated entities in the Gulf of Mexico, which were capable of producing natural gas or oil included Eugene Island 10 #D-1, Eugene Island 10 #E-1, Eugene Island 10 #F-1, Eugene Island 10 #G-1, Eugene Island 10 #I-1, S-L 18640 #1, S-L 19266 #1, S-L 19266 #2, S-L 18860 #1, S-L 19266 #3 and S-L 19261, Ship Shoal 263, Vermilion 170 and West Delta 36. As of August 24, 2012, interests owned by Contango through its related entities in leases in the Gulf of Mexico included Eugene Island 11, East Breaks 369, South Timbalier 97, Ship Shoal 121, Ship Shoal 122, Brazos Area 543, Ship Shoal 134 and South Timbalier 75.

Onshore Exploration and Properties

As of August 24, 2012, the Company had invested in Alta Energy Canada Partnership (Alta Energy) to purchase over! 60,000 a! cres in the Kaybob Duvernay. Contango has a 2% interest in Alta Energy and a 5% interest in the Kaybob Duvernay project. On April 9, 2012, the Company announced that through its wholly owned subsidiary, Contaro Company, it had entered into a Limited Liability Company Agreement (the LLC Agreement) to form Exaro Energy III LLC (Exaro). The Company owns approximately a 45% interest in Exaro. Exaro has entered into an Earning and Development Agreement (the EDA Agreement) with Encana Oil & Gas (USA) Inc. (Encana) to provide funding to continue the development drilling program in a defined area of Encana�� Jonah field asset located in Sublette County, Wyoming.

As of June 30, 2012, the Exaro-Encana venture had three rigs drilling, has completed five wells and achieved first production. As of August 24, 2012, the Company had invested to lease approximately 25,000 acres in the Tuscaloosa Marine Shale (TMS), a shale play in central Louisiana and Mississippi.

Advisors' Opinion:
  • [By Peter Krauth]

    But the dynamic is suddenly changing. This is a pricing game—a global one. You see, while North Americans currently enjoy natural gas at close to $3.40 per million cubic feet (Mcf), Europeans are paying three times as much, between $10 and $11 per Mcf.

Hot Low Price Companies To Watch For 2014: EV Energy Partners LP (EVEP)

EV Energy Partners, L.P. (the Partnership) is engaged in the acquisition, development and production of oil and natural gas properties. As of December 31, 2011, the Company's properties were located in the Barnett Shale, the Appalachian Basin (which includes the Utica Shale), the Mid Continent areas in Oklahoma, Texas, Arkansas, Kansas and Louisiana, the San Juan Basin, the Monroe Field in Northern Louisiana, the Permian Basin, Central and East Texas (which includes the Austin Chalk area), and Michigan. On November 1, 2011, the Company acquired oil and natural gas properties in the Mid Continent area. On December 1, 2011, the Company along with certain institutional partnerships managed by EnerVest, acquired oil and natural gas properties in the Barnett Shale. It acquired a 31.02% proportional interest in these properties. On December 20, 2011, the Company, along with certain institutional partnerships managed by EnerVest, acquired additional oil and natural gas properties in the Barnett Shale. It acquired a 31.63% proportional interest in these properties. On February 7, 2012, the Company along with certain institutional partnerships managed by EnerVest, had a second closing on the oil and natural gas properties, and acquired a 31.63% proportional interest in these properties.

Barnett Shale

The Barnett Shale properties are located in Denton, Parker, Tarrant and Wise counties in Northern Texas. Its portion of the estimated net proved reserves as of December 31, 2011, was 647.4 one billion cubic feet equivalent (Bcfe), 72% of which is natural gas. During 2011, the Company drilled 35 wells. EnerVest operates wells representing 100% of its estimated net proved reserves in this area, and the Company owns an average 29% working interest in 976 gross productive wells.

Appalachian Basin

The Company�� activities are concentrated in the Ohio and West Virginia areas of the Appalachian Basin. Its Ohio area properties are producing from the Knox and Clinton f! ormations and other Devonian age sands in 41 counties in Eastern Ohio and 11 counties in Western Pennsylvania. Its West Virginia area properties are producing from the Balltown, Benson and Big Injun formations in 23 counties in North Central West Virginia. Its estimated net proved reserves as of December 31, 2011, were 126.4 Bcfe, 76% of which is natural gas. During 2011, it drilled 33 grosswells, 26 of which were completed. EnerVest operates wells representing 92% of its estimated net proved reserves in this area, and it owns an average 41% working interest in 8,670 gross productive wells.

Mid-Continent Area

The properties are located in 47 counties in Oklahoma, 17 counties in Texas, four parishes in North Louisiana, one county in Kansas and six counties in Arkansas. The Company�� estimated net proved reserves as of December 31, 2011, were 81.2 Bcfe, 63% of which is natural gas. During 2011, it drilled 82 wells, all of which were completed. EnerVest operates wells representing 33% of its estimated net proved reserves in this area, and it owns an average 12% working interest in 1,864 gross productive wells.

San Juan Basin

The properties are located in Rio Arriba County, New Mexico and La Plata County in Colorado. The Company�� estimated net proved reserves as of December 31, 2011, 68.6 Bcfe, 59% of which is natural gas. During 2011, it drilled two wells, one of which were completed. EnerVest operates wells representing 94% of its estimated net proved reserves in this area, and it owns an average 71% working interest in 227 gross productive wells.

Monroe Field

The properties are located in two parishes in Northeast Louisiana. The Company�� estimated net proved reserves as of December 31, 2011, were 60.9 Bcfe, 100% of which is natural gas. During 2011, it drilled one well, which was completed. EnerVest operates wells representing 100% of its estimated net proved reserves in this area, and it owns an average 100% working i! nterest i! n 3,930 gross productive wells.

Permian Basin

The properties are located in the Yates, Seven Rivers, Queen, Morrow, Clear Fork and Wichita Albany formations in four counties in New Mexico and Texas. The Company�� estimated net proved reserves as of December 31, 2011, were 54.1Bcfe, 37% of which is natural gas. During 2011, it did not drill any wells. EnerVest operates wells representing 99% of its estimated net proved reserves in this area, and it owns an average 93% working interest in 160 gross productive wells.

Central and East Texas

The properties produce primarily from the Austin Chalk formation and are located in 30 counties in Central and East Texas. Its portion of the estimated net proved reserves as of December 31, 2011 was 60.9 Bcfe, 46% of which is natural gas. During 2011, the Company drilled 16 gross wells, 15 of which were completed. EnerVest operates wells representing 93% of its estimated net proved reserves in this area, and it owns an average 12% working interest in 1,829 gross productive wells.

Michigan

The properties are located in the Antrim Shale reservoir in Otsego and Montmorency counties in northern Michigan. The Company�� estimated net proved reserves as of December 31, 2011, were 44.9 Bcfe, 100% of which is natural gas. During 2011, it did not drill any wells. EnerVest operates wells representing 99% of its estimated net proved reserves in this area, and it has an average 84% working interest in 370 gross productive wells.

Advisors' Opinion:
  • [By Robert Rapier]

    3. EV Energy Partners

    EV Energy Partners (Nasdaq: EVEP) was the worst-performing oil and gas MLP. The partnership was plagued by cash flow problems, and as a result units declined by 40 percent for the year. At the most recent closing price, units yield 9.1 percent, but EVEP will likely need more cash flow in 2014 to support that yield.

    4. CVR Partners

  • [By Matt DiLallo]

    The big problem is that there aren't a lot of buyers, which is the issue that�EV Energy Partners� (NASDAQ: EVEP  ) has run into with its own Utica sale. With major players like Chesapeake and Devon exiting, and foreign buyers like Sinopec already securing a foothold in the play, there are few buyers left that are willing to risk capital on a play that's no longer viewed as a sure thing. This has left EV Energy stuck with the 100,000 net acres it has been marketing since last year. The company has chosen to change its marketing strategy to sell the acreage in smaller packages to appeal to more buyers.�

Top Oil Stocks For 2014: Caiterra International Energy Corp (CTI)

CaiTerra International Energy Corporation (Caiterra), formerly Cyterra Capital Corp., is a Canada-based company is engaged in the exploration and development of oil and gas properties. The Company�� project includes Faust, Amadou and Lac La Biche. On March 9, 2012, the Company completed its qualifying transaction with West Pacific Petroleum Inc. (WPP), pursuant to which the Company acquired all of WPP�� working interests in certain petroleum and natural gas leases and an oil sand lease in the Lac La Biche and Amadou Projects located in Alberta, Canada and certain other assets (the QT Oil and Gas Properties) from West Pacific Petroleum Inc. (WPP). On December 17, 2012 the Company acquired the Faust Property located just north of the Swan Hills oil field and south of the Town of Slave Lake.

Top Oil Stocks For 2014: Midstates Petroleum Company Inc (MPO)

Midstates Petroleum Company, Inc. is an independent exploration and production company. The Company�� areas of operation include Pine Prairie, South Bearhead Creek/Oretta, West Gordon and North Cowards Gully. Its Upper Gulf Coast Tertiary trend extends from south Texas to Mississippi across its operating areas in central Louisiana. As of December 31, 2011, it had accumulated approximately 77,100 net acres in the trend. As of December 31, 2011, its development operations are focused in the Wilcox interval of the trend. The Company�� business is conducted through Midstates Petroleum Company LLC, as a direct, wholly owned subsidiary. In September 2012, the Company and its subsidiary acquired all of Eagle Energy Production, LLC�� producing properties as well as their developed and undeveloped acreage primarily in the Mississippian Lime oil play in Oklahoma and Kansas.

As of December 31, 2011, it drilled 57 gross wells in the trend, approximately 93% of. During the year ended December 31, 2011, its average daily production were 7,499 barrels of oil equivalent per day. As of December 31, 2011, it had a total of 974 gross vertical drilling locations, including 115 related to acreage under option, in the trend. As of December 31, 2011, the Company�� properties included approximately 92 gross active producing wells, 95% of, which it operate, and in which it held an average working interest of approximately 99% across its 77,100 net acre leasehold. During March 31, 2012, the Company continued its drilling program, spudding 14 wells, of which nine are producing, three are being drilled and two are waiting to be completed. As of December 331, 2011, it averaged daily production is approximately 9,000 barrels of oil equivalent per day.

Pine Prairie

The Company�� properties in the Pine Prairie area represented 46% of its total proved reserves as of December 31, 2011. During 2011, the Company�� average production from these properties was 3,793 net barrels of oil equ! ivalent per day, consisting of 2,143 barrels of oil, 565 barrels of natural gas liquidations (NGLs) and 6,508 million cubic feet of natural gas per day. As of December 31, 2011, it held an average working interest and average net revenue interest of 92.2% and 68.9%, respectively, on its acreage in Pine Prairie area. The Company has an additional 194 identified drilling locations in this area based primarily on 10-acre spacing.

South Bearhead Creek/Oretta

The Company�� properties in the South Bearhead Creek/Oretta area represented 20.3% of its total proved reserves as of December 31, 2011. During 2011, the Company�� average production from these properties was 4,367 net barrels of oil equivalent per day, consisting of 2,196 barrels of oil, 438 barrels of NGLs and 10,396 million cubic feet of natural gas per day. During 2011, these wells produced at an average daily rate of 2,413 net barrels of oil equivalent per day. As of December 31, 2011, it held an average working interest and average net revenue interest of 100% and 78.5%, respectively, on its acreage in South Bearhead Creek/Oretta area. The Company has an additional 43 identified drilling locations in this area based primarily on 40-acre spacing.

West Gordon

The Company�� properties in the West Gordon area represented 21% of its total proved reserves as of December 31, 2011. During 2011, the Company�� average production from these properties was 1,002 net barrels of oil equivalent per day, consisting of 617 barrels of oil, 68 barrels of NGLs and 1,901 million cubic feet of natural gas per day. As of December 31, 2011, it held an average working interest and average net revenue interest of 95.9% and 71.2%, respectively, on its acreage in West Gordon area. The Company has an additional 74 identified drilling locations in this area based primarily on 40-acre spacing.

North Cowards Gully

The Company�� properties in the North Cowards Gully area represented 11.5% of ! its total! proved reserves as of December 31, 2011. During 2011, the Company�� average production from these properties was 149 net barrels of oil equivalent per day consisting of 103 barrels of oil, 11 barrels of NGLs, and 211 million cubic feet of natural gas per day. As of December 31, 2011, it held an average working interest and average net revenue interest of 94.3% and 71.2%, respectively, on its acreage in North Cowards Gully area. The Company has an additional 95 identified drilling locations in this area based primarily on 40-acre spacing.

Advisors' Opinion:
  • [By Roberto Pedone]

    One energy player that's starting to move within range of triggering a major breakout trade is Midstates Petroleum (MPO), an independent exploration and production company focused on the application of modern drilling and completion techniques to oil-prone resources. This stock is off to a rough start in 2013, with shares off by 30%.

    If you look at the chart for Midstates Petroleum, you'll notice that this stock has recently come out of a nasty downtrend that took shares from over $8 to its low of $4.26 a share. Shares of MPO have started to find some buying interest over the last month at $4.44, 4.26 and $4.48 a share, as the stock has held those levels on recent pullbacks. This could be signaling that a bottom is forming for MPO, since the downside volatility looks over. Shares of MPO are now rebounding strong off those support levels and are quickly moving within range of triggering a major breakout trade.

    Traders should now look for long-biased trades in MPO if it manages to break out above some near-term overhead resistance levels at $4.82 a share and then once it takes out its 50-day moving average at $5.30 a share with high volume. Look for a sustained move or close above those levels with volume that hits near or above its three-month average action of 542,939 shares. If that breakout triggers soon, then MPO will set up to re-test or possibly take out its next major overhead resistance levels at $6 to its 200-day moving average of $6.54 a share.

    Traders can look to buy MPO off any weakness to anticipate that breakout and simply use a stop that sits right below some key near-term support levels at $4.48 or $4.26 a share. One can also buy MPO off strength once it takes out those breakout levels with volume and then simply use a stop that sits a comfortable percentage from your entry point.

  • [By The Energy Report]

    Onshore, my favorite play is the Utica Shale, in which my top plays are Gulfport Energy Corp. (GPOR) and Rex Energy Corp. (REXX). Both companies have highly economic acreage, solid balance sheets and industry-leading production growth. I also like Rex Energy for its likely production upside. Another one of my favorite plays is the Eagle Ford Shale, in which my top plays are Penn Virginia Corp. (PVA) and Sanchez Energy Corp. (SN). Both have core acreage in the region, improving operating results and experienced management. Another favorite name of mine is Midstates Petroleum Co. Inc. (MPO). The company has assets in three solid plays and a management team with a long successful track record. Those are my favorite names at this time.

Top Oil Stocks For 2014: Chesapeake Energy Corporation(CHK)

Chesapeake Energy Corporation engages in the acquisition, development, exploration, and production of natural gas and oil properties in the United States. It also provides marketing and other midstream services. The company?s properties are located in Alabama, Arkansas, Colorado, Kansas, Kentucky, Louisiana, Maryland, Michigan, Mississippi, Montana, Nebraska, New Mexico, New York, North Dakota, Ohio, Oklahoma, Pennsylvania, Tennessee, Texas, Utah, Virginia, West Virginia, and Wyoming. As of December 31, 2010, it had interests in approximately 45,800 gross productive wells. The company?s proved reserves include 17.096 trillion cubic feet of natural gas equivalent. Chesapeake Energy Corporation was founded in 1989 and is based in Oklahoma City, Oklahoma.

Advisors' Opinion:
  • [By John Del, Vecchio,]

    As energy takes on more of a global focus, so do the stocks of the companies that produce it. With the increase in hydraulic fracturing, or fracking, places once thought of as flyover states are now booming industrial areas because of the new ability to uncover deep underground stores of oil and natural gas. There's a lot of room for excavation and discovery in these areas, and companies such as Chesapeake Energy (NYSE: CHK  ) , WPX Energy (NYSE: WPX  ) , and InterOil (NYSE: IOC  ) are taking full advantage.

  • [By Marc Courtenay]

    Unlike many of the other names, ATO pays a 3.23% dividend. It would be a good fit for a large company that produces natural gas such as Chesapeake Energy (CHK) or XOM that may want to expand its ability to handle, transmit and store natural gas.

  • [By David Smith]

    On the natural gas side, the largest producer of that particular hydrocarbon in the U.S. participated in the price-driven production reduction that was initiated by Chesapeake Energy (NYSE: CHK  ) , the nation's No. 2 producer. As a result, gas production was 8.7% lower domestically, which led to a 5.9% global pullback in natural gas output.

Top Oil Stocks For 2014: Pengrowth Energy Corp (PGH)

Pengrowth Energy Corporation (Pengrowth) is engaged in the development, production and acquisition of, and the exploration for, oil and natural gas reserves in the provinces of Alberta, British Columbia, Saskatchewan, Ontario and Nova Scotia. The Company�� producing properties include Lindbergh, Swan Hills Area, Greater Olds/Garrington Area and Southeast Saskatchewan. In February 2012, the Company commenced the injection of steam at its Lindbergh pilot project. On May 31, 2012, the Company acquired NAL Energy Corporation. In November 2012, the Company acquired additional Lochend Cardium assets with production capability of approximately 650 barrels of oil equivalent, weighted 95% to light oil. In March 2013, the Company completed the divestiture of its non-core Weyburn asset. Advisors' Opinion:
  • [By WWW.GURUFOCUS.COM]

    Canadian Trusts- Baytex Energy Trust (BTE) | Yield: 6.1%
    - Enerplus Resources Fund (ERF) | Yield: 5.6%
    - Pengrowth Energy Trust (PGH) | Yield: 7.1%

  • [By Roberto Pedone]

    Pengrowth Energy (PGH) is engaged in the development, production and acquisition of, as well as the exploration for, oil and natural gas reserves in the provinces of Alberta, British Columbia, Saskatchewan and Nova Scotia. This stock closed up 1.6% to $5.69 in Thursday's trading session.

    Thursday's Range: $5.60-$5.75

    52-Week Range: $3.82-$7.49

    Thursday's Volume: 1.06 million

    Three-Month Average Volume: 1.62 million

    From a technical perspective, PGH bounced modestly higher here right above some near-term support at $5.57 with decent upside volume. This stock recently pulled back after a solid uptrend, from $6.06 to that $5.57 low. Shares of PGH now look ready to resume its uptrend and potentially trigger a near-term breakout trade. That trade will hit if PGH manages to take out some near-term overhead resistance levels at $5.88 to $6.06 with high volume.

    Traders should now look for long-biased trades in PGH as long as it's trending above support at $5.57 to more support at $5.40 and then once it sustains a move or close above those breakout levels with volume that hits near or above 1.62 million shares. If that breakout triggers soon, then PGH will set up to re-test or possibly take out its next major overhead resistance levels at 7 to $7.50.

  • [By Eric Volkman]

    Canada's Pengrowth Energy (NYSE: PGH  ) continues to shower dividends from north of the border. The company has set the date for its next monthly common stock distribution of C$0.04 ($0.04) per share, which will be August 15 for shareholders of record as of July 22. That amount matches each of the firm's previous distributions stretching back to December of last year. Prior to that, Pengrowth Energy paid $0.07 per share.

Top Oil Stocks For 2014: Helix Energy Solutions Group Inc (HLX)

Helix Energy Solutions Group, Inc.( Helix), incorporated on November 17,1983, is an international offshore energy company that provides specialty services to the offshore energy industry, with a focus on its growing well intervention and robotics operations. The Company had had two business segments: Contracting Services and Production Facilities. Its Contracting Services seek to provide services and methodologies which it believes are critical to developing offshore reservoirs and maximizing production economi regions. Its Production Facilities segment consists of its majority ownership of a dynamically positioned floating production vessel ( Helix Producer I or HP I). In June 2013, Helix Energy Solutions Group Inc closed the previously announced sale of its pipelay vessel, the Caesar, to Trevaskis Ltd.

In January 2012, it sold its oil and gas properties within the Main Pass area of the Gulf of Mexico. On September 26, 2012, the Company sold its pipelay vessel, Intrepid, to Stabbert Maritime Holdings, LLC. On February 6, 2013, it sold Energy Resource Technology GOM, Inc. (ERT), a former wholly-owned United States subsidiary that conducted its oil and gas operations in the Gulf of Mexico.

Contracting Services Operations

The Company provides services and methodologies which it believes are critical to developing offshore reservoirs and maximizing production economics. Its life of field services are segregated into four disciplines: well intervention, robotics, subsea construction and production facilities. It provides a full range of contracting services primarily in the Gulf of Mexico, North Sea, Asia Pacific and West Africa regions primarily in deepwater.

The Company's services include production, which includes inspection, repair and maintenance of production structures, trees, jumpers, risers, pipelines and subsea equipment, well intervention, life of field support and intervention engineering; reclamation and remediation services include pluggin! g and abandonment services, pipeline abandonment services and site inspections; installation of subsea pipelines, flowlines, control umbilicals, manifold assemblies and risers, pipelay and burial, installation and tie-in of riser and manifold assembly, commissioning, testing and inspection, and cable and umbilical lay and connection. It provides oil and natural gas processing services to oil and natural gas companies, primarily those operating in the deepwater of the Gulf of Mexico using its HP I vessel. The HP I is being utilized to process production from the Phoenix.

The Company engineers, manages and conducts well construction, intervention and asset retirement operations in water depths ranging from 200 to 10,000 feet. Three of its vessels serve as work platforms for well intervention services at costs that are typically significantly less than offshore drilling rigs. In the Gulf of Mexico, its multi-service semi-submersible vessel, the Q4000, has set a series of well intervention firsts in increasingly deeper water without the use of a traditional drilling rig. In August 2012, it acquired the Discoverer 534 drillship from a subsidiary of Transocean Ltd.

The Company operates remotely operated vehicles ( ROVs), trenchers and ROVDrills designed for offshore construction and well intervention services. As global marine construction support moves to deeper water. Its chartered vessels add value by supporting deployment of its ROVs. It provides its customers with vessel availability and schedule flexibility to meet the technological challenges of their subsea activities worldwide. Its robotics assets include 49 ROVs, four trencher systems and two ROVDrills. It operate in the Gulf of Mexico, North Sea, Asia Pacific and West Africa regions. It charters four vessels to support its robotics operations and it has engaged additional vessels on short-term (spot) charters as needed. In 2012, its robotics operations had 377 vessel utilization days and 16% of global revenues derived from! alternat! ive energy contracts. Subsea construction services include the use of umbilical lay and pipelay vessels and ROVs to develop fields in the deepwater.

The Company owns interests in two production facilities in hub locations where there is potential for subsea tieback activity. It has invested in two over-sized facilities that allow the operators of these fields to tie back without burdening the operator of the hub reservoir. It owns a 50% interest in Deepwater Gateway, which owns the Marco Polo TLP located in 4,300 feet of water in the Gulf of Mexico. It also owns a 20% interest in Independence Hub which owns the Independence Hub platform, a 105-foot deep draft, semi-submersible platform located in a water depth of 8,000 feet that serves as a regional hub for up to one billion cubic feet (Bcf) of natural gas production per day from multiple ultra-deepwater fields in the eastern Gulf of Mexico.

The Company competes with Oceaneering International, Inc., Saipem S.p.A., Fugro N.V., DOF ASA, Aker Solutions ASA, Subsea 7 S.A., Technip, McDermott International, Inc., Island Offshore and Edison Chouest Offshore Companies.

Advisors' Opinion:
  • [By GuruFocus]

    Helix Energy Solutions Group Inc (HLX): PRESIDENT & CEO Owen E Kratz Bought 50,000 Shares PRESIDENT & CEO of Helix Energy Solutions Group Inc (HLX) Owen E Kratz bought 50,000 shares on 10/24/2013 at an average price of $24.03. Helix Energy Solutions Group Inc has a market cap of $2.54 billion; its shares were traded at around $24.03 with and P/S ratio of 2.96.

Sunday, January 19, 2014

Top Gold Stocks To Buy For 2014

Although, equities appear the best investment option to make the most of in a stock market rally, it is not very wise to nest all eggs in one basket. This is sometimes comprehended by people only in conditions of adversity (such as a sharp decline in stock market), when investors have parked a large portion of their corpus in a particular asset class (in this case, equities).

It is vital for you to understand that not all assets move in the same direction at the same time. If equities are witnessing a bear market, it is unlikely that other asset classes such as gold, debt instruments, real estate will also be witnessing a down-turn at the same time or vice-versa.

Hence, it is best to invest in more than one type of instrument to improve your chances of achieving your long-term goals with minimal turbulence. You see, planned asset allocation acts as a shield to protect your wealth during uncertain economic conditions and market volatility.

So how can one really allocate his / hard money wisely?

Top Gold Stocks To Buy For 2014: Agnico-Eagle Mines Limited(AEM)

Agnico-Eagle Mines Limited, through its subsidiaries, engages in the exploration, development, and production of mineral properties in Canada, Finland, and Mexico. The company primarily explores for gold, as well as silver, copper, zinc, and lead. Its flagship property includes the LaRonde mine located in the southern portion of the Abitibi volcanic belt, Canada. The company was founded in 1953 and is based in Toronto, Canada.

Advisors' Opinion:
  • [By Patricio Kehoe] e, has cash costs of $912 per ounce, and Agnico Eagle�� costs do not even reach the $700 per ounce mark. Hence, it comes as little surprise that revenue has been decreasing steadily, since gold prices are hovering around the $1300 mark at best. As the company is hemorrhaging money, investment gurus the like of John Burbank and Seth Klarman have decided to sell their entire stake in the firm. I agree with this bearish stance, and recommend investors stay away from Kinross Gold.

    Any Long Term Investment?

    If you were to follow Jean-Marie Eveillard�� purchases, one would be inclined to see good growth prospects for Agnico Eagle, and thus believe in this stock�� potential. And, you wouldn�� be wrong, as the firm has been growing at a steady pace, with no end in sight to its expansion possibilities. However, with a 171% price premium, investors might be better off waiting until a more favorable entry-point is available. Nevertheless, as a long-term investment, I feel highly optimistic and would thus even consider paying the additional cost.

    Disclosure: Patricio Kehoe holds no position in any stocks mentioned.

    Also check out: Jean-Marie Eveillard Undervalued Stocks Jean-Marie Eveillard Top Growth Companies Jean-Marie Eveillard High Yield stocks, and Stocks that Jean-Marie Eveillard keeps buying John Burbank Undervalued Stocks John Burbank Top Growth Companies John Burbank High Yield stocks, and Stocks that John Burbank keeps buying
    The Strategy of Ben Graham ��Warren Buffett�� Mentor From 1923 to 1957 Warren Buffett�� mentor, Ben Graham, followed a strategy of investing in net-nets. He said: ��t always seemed, and still seems ridiculously simple to say that if one can acquire a diversified group of common stocks at a price less than the...net current assets alone��he results should be quite satisfactory. They were so in our experience, for more than 30 years.��br> Today net-nets are rare. They are collected under Gu

Top Gold Stocks To Buy For 2014: First Majestic Silver Corp.(AG)

First Majestic Silver Corp. engages in the production, development, exploration, and acquisition of mineral properties with a focus on silver in Mexico. The company owns interests in La Encantada Silver Mine comprising 4,076 hectares of mining rights and 1,343 hectares of surface land located in Coahuila; La Parrilla Silver Mine consisting of mining concessions covering an area of 69,867 hectares; and San Martin Silver Mine comprising approximately 7,841 hectares of mineral rights and approximately 1,300 hectares of surface land rights located in Jalisco. It also holds interests in Del Toro Silver Mine consisting of 393 contiguous hectares of mining claims and an additional 129 hectares of surface rights located in Zacatecas; Real de Catorce Silver Project comprising 22 mining concessions covering 6,327 hectares located in San Luis Potosi state; and Jalisco Group of Properties consisting of mining claims totalling 5,240 hectares located in Jalisco. The company was founded in 1979 and is headquartered in Vancouver, Canada.

Advisors' Opinion:
  • [By Doug Ehrman]

    Despite the weakness seen in precious metals a few weeks ago, silver has been relatively stable ever since mid-April, with the iShares Silver Trust (NYSEMKT: SLV  ) trading in a dollar-wide range ever since. With the presidents of the Chicago and Philadelphia Federal Reserve banks��releasing conflicting statements, turmoil may be just around the corner. Miners like Pan American (NASDAQ: PAAS  ) and First Majestic (NYSE: AG  ) are still facing operating challenges, while silver streaming darling Silver Wheaton (NYSE: SLW  ) struggles as well.

  • [By Doug Ehrman]

    In terms of individual companies, there are several good choices, but these can behave very differently. Pan American Silver (NASDAQ: PAAS  ) , for example, missed revenue expectations and beat earnings expectations in its last earnings release. But despite the beat, EPS shrank considerably from a year earlier on a GAAP basis. The stock has been fairly flat ever since. Conversely, First Majestic (NYSE: AG  ) reported strong revenue growth and a small bump in profits, sending the stock higher since the announcement. First Majestic reported increased cash costs and tightening margins, largely driven by lower silver prices. Each of these companies faces pressure from increasing production costs and environmental concerns.

  • [By Doug Ehrman]

    It is no secret that precious metals companies have been taking a pounding for some time now. The SPDR Gold Trust (NYSEMKT: GLD  ) and iShares Silver Trust (NYSEMKT: SLV  ) , the gold and silver ETFs, have been hard hit and operating companies like First Majestic (NYSE: AG  ) and Barrick Gold (NYSE: ABX  ) have been hit even harder. Through all of these struggles, and in some cases because of them, one precious metals company continues to look attractive for the long term: Silver Wheaton (NYSE: SLW  ) .

Top Stocks To Own Right Now: Claude Resources Inc.(CGR)

Claude Resources Inc. engages in the acquisition, exploration, and development of precious metal properties, as well as production and marketing of minerals in Canada. It primarily explores for gold in northern Saskatchewan and northwestern Ontario. The company holds interests in the Seabee gold mine located at Laonil Lake, northern Saskatchewan; and the Madsen property that consists of 6 contiguous claim blocks totaling approximately 10,000 acres, located in the Red Lake Mining District of northwestern Ontario. It also holds interest in the Amisk Gold project, which covers an area of 13,800 hectares in the province of Saskatchewan. The company was founded in 1980 and is based in Saskatoon, Canada.

Top Gold Stocks To Buy For 2014: Goldman Sachs Group Inc.(The)

The Goldman Sachs Group, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, provides investment banking, securities, and investment management services to corporations, financial institutions, governments, and high-net-worth individuals worldwide. Its Investment Banking segment offers financial advisory, including advisory assignments with respect to mergers and acquisitions, divestitures, corporate defense, risk management, restructurings, and spin-offs; and underwriting securities, loans and other financial instruments, and derivative transactions. The company?s Institutional Client Services segment provides client execution activities, such as fixed income, currency, and commodities client execution related to making markets in interest rate products, credit products, mortgages, currencies, and commodities; and equities related to making markets in equity products, as well as commissions and fees from executing and clearing institutional client transactions on stock, options, and fu tures exchanges. This segment also engages in the securities services business providing financing, securities lending, and other prime brokerage services to institutional clients, including hedge funds, mutual funds, pension funds, and foundations. Its Investing and Lending segment invests in debt securities, loans, public and private equity securities, real estate, consolidated investment entities, and power generation facilities. This segment also involves in the origination of loans to provide financing to clients. The company?s Investment Management segment provides investment management services and investment products to institutional and individual clients. This segment also offers wealth advisory services, including portfolio management and financial counseling, and brokerage and other transaction services to high-net-worth individuals and families. In addition, it provides global investment research services. The company was founded in 1869 and is headquartered in New York, New York.

Top Gold Stocks To Buy For 2014: Goldcorp Incorporated(GG)

Goldcorp Inc. engages in the acquisition, exploration, development, and operation of precious metal properties in Canada, the United States, Mexico, and Central and South America. It produces and sells gold, silver, copper, lead, and zinc. The company was founded in 1954 and is headquartered in Vancouver, Canada.

Advisors' Opinion:
  • [By idahansen]

    Due to a breakdown in budget talks in Washington, DC, the exchange traded funds for gold, SPDR Gold Shares (NYSE: GLD), and silver, iShares Silver Trust (NYSE: SLV), both rose. That has certainly not been the trend, however. For 2013, SPDR Gold Shares is off by more than 20%. Over the same period, iShares Silver Trust has dropped by around 30%. It is the same story with major gold companies such as Barrick Gold (NYSE: ABX) and Goldcorp (NYSE: GG).

  • [By Jonathan Yates]

    That is very bullish for companies in the gold sector such as Barrick Gold (NYSE: ABX), Goldcorp (NYSE: GG), Wishbone Gold (OTC: WISHY) and Yamana Gold (NYSE: AUY).

  • [By Eric Volkman]

    Goldcorp (NYSE: GG  ) has decided to keep its monthly dividend steady at $0.05 per share, the company announced Monday.

    This latest payout will be distributed on June 28 to shareholders of record as of June 20. So far this year, the firm has paid that amount every month. Previous to that, Goldcorp handed out $0.045 per share. The company has paid a monthly disbursement since 2003.

Saturday, January 18, 2014

Want to invest for the short term? Check out top strategies

There was a research conducted in United States on the average number of days investors hold the stock. The number was 187 (about 6 months) in 1991-1996 period. The median was worse with just 90 days. With internet boom era and overpriced IPOs in 2000s, this came down to about 3 months. There is no data available for Indian market but looking at the volatility of our stock market, the numbers will be very close or even less. 

This tells us there are mostly short term traders in the market. Is there anything wrong with short term trading? Absolutely not, but investors should know the rules of the game before they trade short term. Apart from knowing the rules, investors should also understand that short term trading mostly relies on luck and on study, which at best can be termed speculative.

In the current volatile market scenario, you could be tempted to try your luck in some short term investment strategies to make the best out of a bad situation. Here is an understanding of some short term trading strategies usually followed by short term traders. Knowing these strategies will make you aware of your own actions. However, do proceed with caution.

Day-trade in stocks

In this trading style, traders buy and sell the stocks on the same day or in a very short period of time. The traders take advantage of daily market volatility to profit. They buy when the stock prices go down hoping the prices to appreciate in the day. They square-off by the end of the day. This can result in profit or loss depending on whether the price they sold at was higher or lower than their buy price. This is a very popular way to trade. The popularity stems from the fact that this looks exciting. Even if traders lose money, the loss doesn�t seem big as daily variation is not very volatile.

Day-trading, however, is the most popular way to lose money. Majority of day-traders either lose money or do not make better than a long term investor. Investors look at daily loss and assume that this is not a big loss but accumulate the losses for the year and they can see the big picture.

For example. If I have 1 lakh and I gamble, I will be happy to earn Rs 2000 from my gamble. However, I will not be too worried if I lose Rs 2000. This psychology works against traders. The happiness to get marginal profit is more than the sorrow of suffering a marginal loss. Take another example. A buyer goes to a showroom and to buy a car worth 3 lakh. At the last moment, he comes to know that the seller is giving Rs 6000 coupon free to be spent in lifestyle. At the same time, another buyer goes to another shop and buys the car at 2 lakh and 94000 rupees. Both come out of the shop. Whom do you think will have bigger smile?

Risk mitigation

Investors should not put all their money in day-trading. If you are too excited by daily price volatility and want to try your hands in day-trading, put at most 10% of your total investment for this and play with this. Do not gamble more.

Trading on margin

In margin trading, the investor spends some part from his or her pocket and borrows the rest from the broker at an interest. In this context, investors have to understand the concept of initial and maintenance margin. Initial margin is the % of total investment that investors have to put. When the prices go down, your contribution in terms of percentage will go down. After it goes below a certain percentage, the broker will ask you to put more money to take it to the initial margin. This �certain percentage� is called maintenance margin.
Take an example.

Let�s say an investor, Rakesh buys 100 stock of Airtel at Rs 400 a share. The initial margin is 25% and maintenance margin is 10%. This means Rakesh has to put 10,000 (25% of total investment of 40,000). The rest 30,000 is borrowed by broker. Suppose the prices start going down and goes to Rs 330 a share. In this case, the total value is 330*100 = Rs 33,000. Let�s calculate what the contribution by investor at this point is. The investor contribution is (33000-30000)/33000. This is less than 10%. Hence investor will get a call to put more money so that his or her contribution is 25% of Rs 33000 which is Rs 8250. Since his amount is 3000, he will have to deposit another 5250.

This is high risk high return strategy. The advantage is that if the prices go up, you earn all the profit minus the interest you pay to the broker on his contribution. However, the loss is equally yours because the broker will anyway charge the interest. This is a double whammy.

Risk Mitigation

The only risk mitigation strategy is that the investors should never put more money when margin call is given by the broker. The investor, instead, should ask the broker to square off the position with whatever loss has happened. Avoid the temptation to put more money after the margin call.

Selling short

In this short term strategy, investors borrow and sell the shares and later they have to buy this from open market and give it back to the lender. The idea is to benefit from decreasing prices. Investors short-sell stocks because they assume that prices will go down and when it goes down they buy it cheaper and give it back. The difference is the profit to investors.

For example. An investor Rakesh expects the price of Airtel with current market price @400 to go down. Since he has no stocks, he borrows 100 Airtel stocks from the market and sells it immediately earning 40,000. After sometime, as he expected, the Airtel price went down to 350. He buys 100 stocks back at 35,000 and gives it back. He earns Rs 5000 from this transaction. We are ignoring transaction costs and other charges for the sake of simplicity.

Risk mitigation

Short-selling is speculative in nature and investors may lose if the prices go up. There is no guarantee that stocks will go down as expected. There are other ways to mitigate the risk by using derivatives but those are out of scope of this article. If you are keen on doing it, use a very small amount (less than 10% of your investment) for short-selling.

Short term is tempting to investors. Short term trading offers excitement, action, and instant gratification. Compared to this, long term is boring, tedious, and requires extreme patience. However, there is no way to build wealth but by using long term strategies.

This is true for most of the investors. There are short term investors who have done tremendously well but they are few and far between. Hence investors should put their major portion of investment corpus for long term wealth building assets and segregate a minor portion for short term speculation.

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